Belinda's Betrayal and What it Might Mean

Well, that was a shock.
So much of a shock that when I was informed that Belinda Stronach had crossed the floor, I checked my leg for pulling devices which may have been attached. When the third person announced that she was the new Minister of Human Resources in Paul Martin's cabinet, I was forced to rearrange the geography of my mind. That's hard work.
Stephen Harper claims Belinda's move has nothing to do with him and everything to do with her own ambition. That's grade-A, 100% certified organic bullshit. Consider: The polls show that Harper's Conservatives have no hope in Ontario and thus very little hope of forming the next government. When the Conservatives lose the next election--whenever that may be--they'll be out for blood, and Harper will be the first to be gutted. The party will then search coast to coast for a leader that can win over some Ontarians. Belinda Stronach is that leader.
Or she would have been. Very likely she could have succeeded Martin as our next Prime Minister. If she really had ambition, that would have been her path.
Instead, she's discovered her inner Liberal, and at what couldn't have been a more disastrous time for her old party.
I've got a real problem with elected politicians changing parties. Belinda's constituents voted her in as a Conservative; there should be an immediate byelection required if she suddenly wants to be a Liberal instead.
Regardless, her defection from Tory ranks means the NDP's budget will pass. There were ominous rumblings for Harper on that before his star MP deserted him...two Tory MPs from Newfoundland were strongly considering voting with the government anyway, in order to procure a whole whack of oil money for that province.
So, let's follow the bouncing ball: Martin's government stays afloat until at least November and possibly much longer. (I know Martin promised to hold an election within 30 days of Gomery's findings, but Chretien is determined to quash the inquiry before it gets to that stage. Even if he fails, do you really expect a Liberal to keep a promise?
Stephen Harper will lose that election, whenever it comes, because the media in Ontario paint him as "lusting for power" (what do they think Paul Martin's been scheming for the last, oh, fifteen years?) and has a "hidden agenda". In Ontario, we believe everything our media tells us.
So...exit Stephen Harper, bloodied. The Conservatives will (rightly) figure that the election was supposed to be a slam dunk. They will replace Harper with someone more moderate that can win some seats east of Winnipeg--if they can find someone who fits that bill. That's doubtful.
Meanwhile, the Bloc will rule Quebec, the Conservatives will rule much of the west, and the Libranos will rule Ontario. Little change from what exists now, in other words.
Except for the anger.
I fully expect a western secessionist movement to gain in popularity in the aftermath of the election. There's only so long Alberta can be expected to wait for Ontario to come to its senses, after all.
Gilles Duceppe is already planning the next referendum. It's not too much of a stretch to suggest another one might be forthcoming from the west. Confederation as we know it is now an endangered species.
All because one woman crossed the floor of Parliament.