Like many soap operas, that one was predictable.

Where to now, Canada?
In the wake of last night's tie vote on Jack Layton's budget, a few things need to be said.
1) It seems to me that the hard-won reconciliation between the Reform and Progressive wings of the Conservative party may have been all for naught. The division still exists, and there's no easy way to span it. Scrapping Harper and replacing him with someone moderate--Bernard Lord, perhaps--would certainly win some Ontario and Maritime votes, but only at the expense of alienated Western voices. Either keeping Harper or replacing him with another of his ilk (Manning, Day, and Harper are peas in a pod, politically) will satisfy the West but disenchant Ontario. No matter what, the party could well split again, thus ensuring Liberal dominance for another three terms.
2) I'm one of the few people of a Tory bent willing to defend Belinda Stronach to some degree. She approached her then-leader and told him she accepted 'parts' of the Liberal budget. Rather than engage her in dialogue at this point, Harper reportedly blew his top and accused her of having "too much ambition" for the Conservative Party. A real leader, recognizing Belinda's importance to his party, would never have said such a thing. A real leader would have sought compromise.
3) I've lamented a couple of times now that Canadians overwhelmingly don't want an election, and that Ontarians are actually increasingly willing to trust the Liberals over the Conservatives (or anyone else). It still baffles me--how could Harper be any worse, after all?--but I am at least beginning to understand it.
The Conservatives haven't said much about what it is they actually plan on doing if they win power. They are making a critical error here. They're doing exactly what Belinda accused them of: forgetting how big and complex Canada is.
In their home province of Alberta, the Tories have unqualified support. A Tory has been running the province for years now; it's booming. Naysayers may chirp all they want about how trained monkeys could ride soaring commodity prices into the economic stratosphere, but the fact is that Klein's Tories have done it.
Out in B.C., a Tory who calls himself a Liberal has just won a much deserved re-election. His policies have revitalized the B.C. economy to a point where, on certain indicators, it's running neck-and-neck with Alberta's. No wonder voters support these two.
The thing is, out west--and in the few remaining rural parts of Ontario, for that matter--the thinking is simpler. If you have an infestation on your land, you remove it by any means necessary. If you have rampant corruption in your politicians, you remove them by any means necessary.
But voters in the cities are more jaded. They think "corruption? All politicans are corrupt, so getting rid of one bunch won't change much."
In Ontario, too, people seem more willing to be bribed with their own money. Indeed, many seem to feel that's the essence of politics. In the wide open spaces, the distrust of government is at least as high, but so is a certain entrepreneurial go-it-alone-iveness that is anathema to the whole notion of government dependance Ontario is increasingly built on.
I guess what I'm getting at is that Ontario wants to see this Parliament--which it alone is responsible for electing--work. I'm thinking it's not really Stephen Harper's fault that he can't see that or understand it...he is from Calgary, after all.
The kind of Conservative Leader Ontarians could get behind is one who masters the fine art of compromising without selling out. Jack Layton got his deal; Harper should have been next in line, saying "we'll support this budget--yes, even the NDP amendments, as distasteful as we find them--if you'll guarantee broader powers for the Auditor-General, an opening up of all those foundations you're hiding money in, and, oh, yes, a 2% cut in the GST." Or something like that. The fact that Harper has done nothing of this sort indicates to me that he is not suited to be the leader of a party in Opposition in a minority Parliament. Until the Conservatives come up with one who is, we're doomed to Liberal governments forever.

Don't get me wrong. There should still be an election, and I hope there will be, just as soon as Gomery has issued his report. At that point, one hopes the Conservatives will have given us something to vote for rather than relying on us to simply vote against Martin.