On the one hand, I'm astounded. On the other, I'm not surprised at all.
With three days left until Election Day, the polls seem to be showing that Harper's Conservatives have peaked. They were into slim majority territory as recently as this past Tuesday, and now only lead by nine percentage points. It looks like a Tory minority right now, and a Liberal minority is (amazingly) still not out of the question.
My partisanship aside, the Liberals have run one of the worst campaigns in my political memory, full of stupid gaffes and outright bald-faced lies. Apparently, they've even stooped so far as to level a false accusation of sexual assault against a Conservative. "Get power at any cost; hold power at any cost" has been the Liberal mantra for generations now.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, have run a largely gaffe-free, factual, issues-oriented campaign--pretty much as close to perfect as you're going to get. They entered the campaign eight or ten points back and will finish it--maybe--eight or ten points ahead, having scored major gains in Quebec and lesser gains in rural Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
Jack Layton's New Democrats have also run an excellent race, little good as it's going to do them. They have credibly positioned themselves as an alternative: if you don't like the Liberal corruption and you fear the boogeyman Harper, why not vote for the NDP? Trouble is, not many people are listening. The Dippers will pick up a few votes and a few seats and that's about it.
Toronto is still Liberalville. If you took the GTA out of Canada the Conservatives would have a respectable majority government locked up. Instead, we're headed for, at the moment, a minority--there's no telling how slim or which party will lead.
Canadians should think long and hard before they take this course.
A Tory minority government, with the socialist NDP and separatist Bloc holding the balance of power, is inherently unstable. We'll just be going through another election in less than a year. A Liberal minority is unthinkable. Martin would linger like a bad fart; there would be increased stirrings of separatism in both Quebec and Alberta; all the scandal and wrongdoing would be perceived to have been forgiven. Gun crime will continue unchecked. (Did you think a second ban on handguns would have any more effect than the first?) Our relations with the United States will continue their slide; after all, the Prime Minister has denigrated the Americans at every turn this campaign. (And for all you rabid isolationists who really do hate America and think that Canada-U.S. relations should suck, do bear in mind that they have in their power to make life so very, very uncomfortable for us.)
Martin has campaigned on what he calls "Canadian values". Most of the voters outside Ontario see this as the insult it is: if you don't think as we do, you are not Canadian. Many Ontarians do get it, too. Just not enough. Too many seem to actually believe, along with their beloved Liberals, that there's no better choice to lead the country than a bunch of liars, cheats, and frauds.
The smear campaign is working again, you see. No matter what Stephen Harper says, Martin claims to know better what's actually on his mind.
The Liberal war room hears Stephen Harper say that he will not proceed with an abortion agenda. Last campaign's strategy was to respond 'Well of course he'd say that' while solemnly winking. But why bother with insinuation when lies work so much better? Barely three hours had passed before Martin was announcing that Stephen Harper would proceed with an abortion agenda.
That's amazing. What's even more amazing is that people believe Martin when he says this.
Somebody, please tell me. What have the Liberals done to merit so much as a single vote?
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