I take a quick break...

...to write out some fiction and the world geopolitical situation goes to shit.
Our civilization can be said to have begun in the Middle East. That may be the case, but it seems we had to spread out of the powderkeg before we could begin to evolve.
There is likewise a view that war is the wellspring of all technological advance. It is true that long periods of peace tend to stagnate a society, and many technological marvels first had military applications. However, peace is a the first requisite for social and spiritual advancement. The first step towards the solution of any problem is the decision not to kill each other over it.
Sadly, this is a step that has yet to be taken in and around the Levant.
The political situation is complex, with many players and even more layers (which is this writer's shorthand for "I'm tired, and really don't feel like wading through scads of contradictory information just to write a blog entry".)
It is fashionable in Canada these days to side with the Palestinians against what is termed "Israeli aggression". This is also the general United Nations stance: its first knee-jerk reaction to any ratcheting up of Mideast tension is to blame Israel.
I'd like to take a moment to ask those of you who take this view: what is Israel supposed to do? It is surrounded by enemies who have publically declared their intentions to wipe it off the face of the earth. Every concession the state of Israel makes is met with further attack: it is clear that nothing Israel says or does will appease the jackals on its borders. You can argue all you want that Israelis displaced the Palestinians when their state was arbitrarily created in 1948, and you would have a point. Over here in North America, we have people breaking the law over treaties issued in 1748, so I guess it's too much to ask for people to live in the present and face reality...
The permanent solution to the Middle East conflagration involves the creation of a Palestinian state. No problem, say the Palestinians: we'll just take Israel, and kill all the Jews in it.
Russia, among other countries, has stated that Israel is going overboard in its reaction to the kidnapping of two of its soldiers. It certainly appears that way on the surface. If this had been the only aggression against Israel in the last fifty years, I'd side with Russia. But it hasn't been. Products of viciously anti-Semitic education aspire to kill themselves, so long as they can take some Jews with them. Israel's gotten pretty good at catching suicide bombers this past quarter-century: they're up to one in three. Prick a person--or a nation--with a needle long enough and you'll see the snap.
Here's a stat which humanizes Israelis, at least for me: they are among the world leaders per capita in cellphone use. This is undoubtedly because after every fresh attack, it is a compulsion to call everyone you know to make sure they're still among the living. Imagine life like that.
What next? It's not beyond the realm of possibility that "Operation Summer Rain" could escalate into a third world war. While I doubt this will happen, I can't discount it. Blood feuds often take on a life of their own, and God knows there are enough people in the region who hold exuberant parties whenever news of Jewish casualty hits the airwaves. It was the assassination of some noble nobody that precipitated World War One. A lucky Hezbollah strike could have similar far-reaching consequences.
One thing I'd count on is oil prices going through the roof. I've been wrong on this before--for three years I've predicted gasoline will hit $1.50/litre in Canada, and aside from a few Katrina-gougers, we haven't seen it yet--but surely it's coming. If tensions continue to rise and we get a few hurricanes in the mix (and lo and behold, the ocean is a mighty warm place again this year), watch out. I'll never understand the economics of this...we have enough oil in Canada to do us for centuries yet. But I suspect we'll all have to deal with pump shock on a massive scale, and soon. Meanwhile, a few prayers directed to whatever Higher Power you believe in--YHWH, Jesus the Christ, Allah, the overriding sense of humans everywhere to do what's right when the fan meets the shit--whatever you call that Higher Power, a few prayers to it probably wouldn't hurt at this point.