The Symptoms are Presenting...

"There has grown in the minds of certain groups in this country the idea that just because a man or corporation has made a profit out of the public for a number of years, the government and the courts are charged with guaranteeing such a profit in the future, even in the face of changing circumstances and contrary to public interest. This strange doctrine is supported by neither statute or common law. Neither corporations or individuals have the right to come into court and ask that the clock of history be stopped, or turned back."

--Robert A. Heinlein, "Life-Line" (first published 1939)

I can't help but think of Heinlein's passage when it comes to today's union blockade of GM's Canadian headquarters. This is being done in protest of GM's decision to close an Oshawa plant, which produces GMC Sierra and Chevrolet Silverado pick-up trucks.

At issue is a contract signed just last month which commits GM to keeping the plant open until September of 2009. It also commited the company to building its next-generation of pickups, forecast for a 2011-2012 launch, at the Oshawa facility.

The only thing that's changed today is that there will apparently no longer be a next-generation of pickup truck.
This is hardly surprising. The plant in Oshawa ships 90% of its product to the United States. The U.S. market for pickup trucks has withered and died in the face of gas over $4 a gallon: May's sales dropped 39%, year over year.
Actually, I'm rather amazed GM will still build Silverados and Sierras over the next fifteen months. It's not as if very many of them are going to sell.

Wanna fly anywhere? Better hurry up. With oil at $130/bbl it costs nearly $70000 to fill a Boeing 777, meaning a guaranteed loss on each flight, even with the huge fuel surcharges. It's not hard to imagine the consequences should the price of oil continue to rise. And while no market moves in a straight line, because of Peak Oil, up, up, up is the trend.

There are still forces hard at work trying to convince people that all is well, that all manner of things are well, and if they aren't so well, it's only temporary. Those of you living on the banks of that fabled river in Egypt, you might consider waking up. Denial is no longer an option: we're entering the Long Emergency.

It's critically important to understand two things about the turbulent period we're just now getting a taste of. One: it's terminal. This will not be like any recession or depression the world has ever seen. Barring some sort of tricknological miracle I really wouldn't put my money on, it's not overmuch of an exaggeration to suggest the end of civilization as we know it is staring us in the face. The closure of a truck plant in Oshawa is pretty small potatoes against something like this.

Here is a comprehensive primer on the progression and consequences of Peak Oil. I urge everyone to read this closely and give it some serious thought. This is not a conspiracy site and it does not make unverifiable claims.

Two: the Long Emergency is survivable...if we plan for it and adapt to it. Rather than panicking, we would do well to consider the word "emergency" and what it implies.
An emergency suggests that something is emerging. In this case I would suggest what's emerging is a new economy almost diametrically opposed to the old. Where globalization, conglomeration and a devil-may-care-we-sure-don't attitude towards natural resources once reigned supreme, we're beginning to see the first efforts at dismantling the old structure. Eventually there will be a very different model in action, emphasizing localization, small scale operations, and conservation of energy and material. On a personal level, this means self-sufficiency as much as is possible. It means small-scale economies, possibly based on barter. It means local production and the utmost frugality when it comes to natural resources.

G.M. truck manufactures take note: the worst thing we can do is continue to demand that "the clock of history be stopped, or turned back". The tempus is fugiting P.D.Q....about this fast, actually.
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