Saturday, November 15, 2008

Help!

"IN CASE OF EMERGENCY, please remain calm, stay seated and wait for your federal bailout."

I get it.
Really, I do. The word "bailout" triggers an automatic vomit reflex in all and sundry. I'm not immune myself, not after I've seen how so much of the bailout money went to executive bonuses, and so much more went into funds to buy up other companies, rather than, oh, I don't know, restore liquidity to the market. 
And if you dare suggest a bailout for the beleaguered auto industry, the vomit reflex will be aimed squarely in your face. What did they do with their billions in profit during the good years and silly unions, negotiating unsustainable contracts and why should we bail out companies that can't lead their way out of a paper bag are some of the milder comments I've seen.

(In the interests of disclosure, it must be noted my stepfather works for CAMI Automotive. I've tried not to let that colour my perspective on the foregoing. Probably failed.)

If I lived in any other province, I'd be right there with you, upchucking away. But I live here in Ontario. This province manufactures more light vehicles than anywhere else on the continent. Including spinoffs, the auto industry accounts for over 400,000 jobs and a third of Ontario's exports. Given this and a host of other stats showing the vital nature of the automotive sector to this province, the consequences of letting it fail are really too dire to contemplate.
Besides, many of our auto plants have been cited for superior quality control, by no less an authority than J.D. Power. The days of slipshod, lazy line workers are well in the past.
There is some truth to the unsustainable union contracts...in some plants, anyway. GM's pension plan was in trouble even before the market went kerploof. But everyone realizes the times are getting tight, not least of all the Canadian Auto Workers union; they willingly renegotiated contracts with the Big Three in the last year, giving millions of dollars in concessions, in the ironclad knowledge that if they didn't, they'd lose their jobs altogether. 

It's also true that the domestic automakers in particular have been slow to respond to changing public demands. But even that's more perception than reality. Ford's Focus, Flex and Fusion models have won numerous awards; their fuel economy is comparable to, and in some cases superior to, like-sized imports. Unless you're driving a Hummer, you're getting middlin' decent sippiness to go with your zippiness. Hell, even the Escalade comes in a hybrid now. Besides, before this year's oil spike, the Ford F-150 (made in Ontario) vied with the Honda Civic (made in Ontario) as the best-selling vehicle in Canada. Car companies build gas-guzzlers because people buy them. 

These companies generally work five to seven years ahead; right now the 2013 models are on somebody's drawing board. In that context, it's perhaps a little more understandable how flat-footed the run-up in oil prices caught everyone. (Now there's talk that oil might fall to $30 or even lower before recovering. Sounds great for happy motoring, but it would crush the Canadian economy.)

But...everyone knows the oil's running out...if not now, then soon, if not soon, then at least within the foreseeable future. Car manufacturers should be weaning themselves off oil now, and if they're not, they don't deserve bupkuss.

So car companies have been guilty of shortsightedness. That merely suggests they're run by human beings. Being human ourselves, we should not judge them. As I suggested in my last bailout-themed post, we're all in this minivan together. Or something like that. 

Speaking purely pragmatically, perched on the precipice of what looks to be, at the very least, a severe economic downturn...I can understand the opposition to a bailout. Suppose the government does step in and provide billions of dollars to the automotive sector, allowing them to continue as before. Right away you run into a problem: models moldering away on dealership lots because few can afford to buy. You might be making the world's best car, getting a light-year to the gallon, but unless people are buying it, your assembly line will be a breadline in short order.
It's an ugly problem with no simple solution. I sure as hell don't have one. All I know is the crippling of our province's automotive sector cripples us all. I'd like to open this blog to suggestions...how do we keep the plants running and people employed? Anyone? Anyone at all?





3 comments:

Rocketstar said...

My #1 complaint against the auto bailout is the fact that even before all of this mess and high gas prices, the us automakers were tumbling as they can not compete with the Japonese autos who don't have the Union problems (both fiscal and operational) or the huge debt load.

I just don't think the US autromakers are vianble in thier current structure.

It also appears that Chapter 11 is out of the question and Chapter 7 totall liquidation is the only result because the financing that companies use in Chapter 11 to provide interim financing has dried up with the current liquidy issues.

I just don't want to prop up a losing industry. We didn't bailout DHL and many, many other businesses that have recently failed.

I think we need to take our pain and learn from it. I know it is easy for me to say as I am not directly impacted by the auto's but I just hate to throw money at a bad business model.

Ken Breadner said...

Rocket, to some extent I agree with you. But it's not as if the whole industry's a failure, we shouldn't be throwing out the baby with the bathwater...

Peter Dodson said...

I'm fine with bailing them out as long as they promise to never produce an SUV again, and focus primarily on electric cars :) If they don't make those concessions, too bad for them (because as Rocket says, they've been failing for a while now and it's their fault).