It has been some time since I wrote a Toronto Maple Leaf post. Actually, it's been some time since I've written any post. Now that I find myself with a day off for the first time in two weeks. I also find myself with little energy to write anything substantial. And so I'm going to spout off about the Leafs, which I can do indefinitely with little to no skullsweat.
I do recognize that a substantial proportion of my readers--nearing a hundred percent of them, in fact--do not share my love of hockey, or if they do, they declare allegiance to some other team. This is perfectly acceptable, provided they do it quietly and wash their mouths out with soap afterwards. Or they may choose to slink off into the Internet and leave me to pontificate and prognosticate in peace. It makes no matter to me.
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Still with me?
All is not well in Leafland. The usual pattern post-lockout has been to dig a hole early, then start frantically trying to climb out of it at right about this point in the season. The climb is fruitless every year, but it does convince a subset of the Leaf fan base that "there's always next year".
This year seems to be a reversal of that pattern, in that the Leafs started like a house on fire, and as of late they're playing like crap. On the plus side, they're currently in playoff position, which is not something they've been able to say in February for what seems like decades. However, they're hanging on to that playoff position by the blades of their skates, and may well have fallen out of the top eight by the time you read this.
It's not that they're losing hockey games that concerns me as a fan: it's the way they're losing them. They were blown out 6-2 by the Vancouver Canucks the other night. No shame in losing to the Canucks, one of the elite teams in the West, but at least four of Vancouver's goals were gift-wrapped.
To be fair, the Leafs are exactly what they were projected to be this season: a bubble team that might or might not make the playoffs. Also to be fair, depending on the lineup they ice on a given night, this is the youngest team in the league. With a young team you expect inconsistency. You expect them to hit a wall about two thirds of the way through the season. None of this is a shock.
But if you're Brian Burke, GM of the Leafs, you should still be concerned. Burke claims to build all his teams "from the net out'--which should mean that at this point, three and a half years into the rebuild, the Leafs should at minimum have a solid goaltending tandem in place and a modicum of defensive awareness. Yet the Leafs rank 26th out of 30 teams in goals against per game. Yes, that's up four places from when Burke took over--but that's not good enough. Nowhere near.
It's hardwired into the DNA of every Leaf fan to make excuses. The hell of it is, every year at least a few of the excuses advanced have some merit. This year, for example, one could argue that Reimer would have much better stats were he not concussed early in the season. He hasn't been the same goalie since he returned. Gustavsson, meanwhile, is what he's always been: a maddeningly inconsistent goaltender whose athleticism can astound you almost as much as his mental lapses. Bottom line: the Leafs are unlikely to make the playoffs with either Reimer or Gustavsson as their #1, and if they do it'll be an awfully quick exit.
The defence corps(e) is prone to brainfarts at the most inopportune times. The Vancouver game on Saturday was a case in point: Canucks were constantly finding themselves unmolested in prime scoring areas. On three occasions they had enough time to compose a sonnet before depositing the biscuit in the basket. Watching this pitiful display tied my mind in knots. Does this team have a coach? I see three of them standing there behind the bench. What exactly do they say to their charges, and why does no one seem to listen?
Toronto has the speed and finesse to get get away with defensive ignorance against the Oilers and Blue Jackets of the world, but teams actually committed to winning hockey games give the Leafs fits. Again, it comes back to coaching, or the lack of it. You look at Vancouver, Detroit and Boston and the first thing you notice is the structure in their game. Players know where their teammates are at all times; passes are almost always crisp and on the tape. The puck is shot in, chased down, cycled, and brought back to the point, then fired on net with a screen in front. Defensively, there's always one player harassing the puck carrier, harrying and hurrying him to make a play, and another poised to block a shot or intercept a pass. I see glimpses of promise in Toronto's transition game, most of them having to do with blistering speed, but establishing a cycle, much less breaking the opposition's cycle, is too often beyond the Leafs' abilities. In hockey parlance, they're lacking board presence at both ends of the ice.
Cue the trade deadline and its attendant madness.
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I argued when Burke took over that it would take three complete churns of the team to get from where the Leafs were at the time (nowhere) to where they want to go (a Stanley Cup). Burke has since accomplished one full churn, trading everyone away except Grabovski and establishing something approaching a respectable stable of prospects at the AHL level and below. Leaf fans are notoriously impatient: even one poor showing brings cries of BURN IT WITH FIRE, TRADE EVERYONE, CAN WILSON, CAN BURKE. It's ridiculous: this is still very much a work in progress.
Nobody is really sure what Burke is thinking--he's a master of misdirection who tends to talk a great game while playing an entirely different, and sometimes greater, game. But here's my take on what's out there, what it might cost to obtain, and whether or not it's worth it.
We'll start with RICK NASH, the captain of the sad-sack Blue Jackets. Every year there's a team like the Jackets, so bad they could double their point total and still finish out of the playoffs, except usually that team is the New York Islanders. Regardless, there is always one or maybe two players on that crappy team who would be much better playing anywhere else. Nash is arguably a prime example. He's never managed a point a game--considered (by me, at least) to be the bare minimum criterion to call yourself a true offensive star. And in seven years, he's led his team to precisely one playoff round, which was over almost before it began. But you watch his game and you wonder. He's got a big body and he knows how to use it; he knows how to score goals too, having amassed thirty or more five times. He would undoubtedly look damned good on the Leafs' first line.
The cost, however, is prohibitive. It seems as if Columbus wants half of any team bidding for Nash. The good half, it goes without saying. In the Leafs' case, you're looking at a package of Gardiner, Grabovski, Reimer and Kadri to even join the discussion. I can part with Kadri and Reimer with no concern, provided I'm getting a goalie back, but I'd be very leery of trading Gardiner. He leads the league in points by rookie defencemen and his skating is effortless, almost Coffey-esque. His nickname in the room is Silver...because after a thousand games in the NHL, players receive a silver stick. Jake Gardiner has played 52 NHL games. Does that give you some idea of the respect he's earned in a very short time?
And supposing the Leafs actually land the guy, they then have to pay him over eight years at a $7.8 million cap hit. Those are superstar numbers, extended over a term that would make Burke choke. The only way I'd acquire Nash is if I could then flip him to one of the other teams on his list for a sweet return...and even then, I'd second-guess myself unto the end of time.
If Burke is looking at stripping the Blue Jackets, he'd be marginally better off considering JEFF CARTER. His stats are comparable, his cap hit is more palatable (albeit for a longer term), and he's been linked to the Leafs forever. He'd also come considerably cheaper, since reports suggest Columbus can't get rid of the guy fast enough. The downside is that Carter is injury prone and has a reputation as, well, a bit of a jerk. I wouldn't necessarily steer clear on either score. I'd just ask myself, is he Tim Connolly brittle or just experiencing a run of bad luck? And his he a jerk like Grabovski was once or is he Avery-class? Consider this one high-risk with a potential high reward.
Before Anaheim began a very Leaf-like late season run, rumour had it RYAN GETZLAF was on the table. If so, the table has since been cleared. Getzlaf is exactly what Toronto needs and a fan can dream, but this just won't happen.
Everybody in the NHL gets linked to the Leafs at some point in their career, if they're any good. I've heard JOSH HARDING's name discussed in a few places and the Leafs could do a lot worse than to shore up the goaltending. He is a solid netminder who would not be half as expensive as the marquee names supposedly available at the position like Bernier and Schneider.
I wonder what it would take to pull DUSTIN BROWN out of Los Angeles. He's one notch below Nash in skill level, but he's durable and possesses the "pugnacity, testosterone, truculence and belligerence" that Burke craves. He wouldn't come cheap, but he could probably be had for less than Nash. I'd gladly offer up Grabovski and a couple of prospects.
Another alternative might be RYAN CLOWE in San Jose. He's another power forward with a mean streak the Leafs desperately need.
The fact is, nobody knows what Burke is going to do. I suspect he's going to do something, because his team still has weaknesses in all areas of the ice and he's shown himself to be open to improving those weaknesses. I also suspect that whatever he does will be off the map...nobody, but nobody, saw his last three trades developing.
This Leaf fan is waiting with bated breath. The team is getting better. Now it's time to take the next step and declare it a playoff team.
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