Okay, about those Leafs.
I'm saying they won't make the playoffs. I'm not saying they can't. It'll be a stiff challenge for Maurice's squad to better the 90 points they got last year under Quinn, and in the Eastern Conference an eighth playoff seed should have 94 points.
The Leafs have two advantages that might help them. One is their coach. Several Marlies have made the squad, and Maurice knows them intimately. More important, Paul won't accept a bullshit effort from anyone. It's well past time we got this team a kick-ass coach. When you're lacking in talent (and let's face it, the Leafs are lacking in talent), hard work and determination can carry you further than people expect you to go. As the Leafs have already discovered, Maurice insists on both.
The other advantage is in their style, which is markedly different from the style most other teams use. The Leafs have built their entire offense around defensemen. You go down this defense roster from top to bottom and only three players (Gill, Belak and Kronwall) are strict stay-at-home types. The rest--Kaberle, McCabe, Kubina, White, Wozniewski, and Harrison) have varying degrees of offensive flair.This even extends on to the IR list: Brendan Bell and Carlo Colaiacovo are both primarily offensive D-men. No other team in the league can boast this kind of firepower off the back end, and incoming teams will have to adjust their games to match Toronto's, rather than the other way 'round. That's always a good thing.
That said, however, there are questions. Two of them, both huge.
1) How dull is our Razor?
There's no doubt Raycroft has the skills. You don't win the Calder Trophy by accident. What Raycroft lacks--even now, I suspect, no matter what he says--is confidence. He had a BRUTAL year last year, worse even than Belfour. There are all sorts of excuses: the lingering effects of the lockout, a couple of injuries, really crappy defensive play in front of him...but a goalie with confidence can overcome all that, and Raycroft didn't. Toronto is one of the worst places in the league to suffer anemia of the confidence, because the media will pile on and drive you into the ice. Put me on the record predicting that at best, Raycroft and Aubin will end up platooning. Put me also on record as saying Martin Gerber would have made me sleep a little better at night. Or Biron. Or Nabokov. Or just about anybody else. I was up at my dad's on draft day and vividly remember hanging my head.
Aubin's not bad, actually. He flops around too much on scrambles, but if the team in front of him does their job there won't be many of those. He might even displace Raycroft as the #1--which would hasten the forced departure of John Ferguson Jr. in favour of a real general manager.
C'mon, Andrew. Prove me wrong. I got a big plate of crow here I'm hoping to get to tuck into come April.
2) Where are our forwards?
Sundin, point-a-game as always. I suspect he might even do a shade better, barring injuries, as Maurice will play the hell out of his captain. Can anyone else out of this forward group break 60 points? Doubtful. Wellwood has the smarts, but on the wing he'll have to absorb physical punishment I don't think he can take. Tucker can take and give more punishment than most...he has the fire, but can he duplicate last year's career season? And after that the offensive skill level drops off noticeably. Ponikarovski's a useful player with some upside, but nobody's first line winger. Steen, Stajan, and Peca are mostly defensive forwards. Antropov? Ought to be packed up in a box marked "Very Fragile" and mailed to Kazakhstan. O'Neill? Washed up. Kilger? A slightly less skilled Ponikarovski. That leaves rookies Pohl, Suglobov and Battaglia.
Pohl is a definite keeper, and I'm glad to see he made the team. I'd like to see him center Steen and Stajan. Put him down for forty points--pretty good for a rookie. Suglobov--great hands, but can he pass? Or play defense at all? He needs another year of seasoning. Battaglia I think will surprise people, but not on the scoresheet most nights.
Ferguson felt that we scored enough last season but needed to upgrade defensively. He's done, actually, a pretty good job there: Kubina and Gill are both decent, and Peca was a steal. But he didn't look very closely at the numbers. We were almost dead last in scoring five-on-five last year; only a stellar power play gave us a respectable goals-for total. Obviously Ferguson thinks the procession to the penalty box will continue this year. Me, I'm not so sure about that. Because the power plays are so deadly, good teams will make every effort to stay out of the box, and there's no excuse anymore: players know what a penalty is. Fewer penalties mean we're going to have to score at even strength. Another place I hope to God I'm wrong, but I just don't see it.
Bottom line, the goalie's got to be better than I think he is and the offense has got to be a lot better than I thnk it is for this team to make the post-season. Since I don't think I'm wrong on both counts, I predict we'll be on the outside looking in come April 12th.
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